Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Soul's Defense in Big Situations

As I've posted earlier, the Soul had the 2nd best overall defense last season despite their 6-12 record. Today I'm going to take a closer look at why the Soul had just the 9th best scoring defense in the AFL last season while giving up the second fewest yards per game.

The Soul performed above average in their 3rd-down conversion rate. The Soul ranked 7th in the AFL giving up 51 conversions on 115 attempts for a 44.3% success rate. The Tampa Bay Storm had the league's lowest success rate at 37.6% on 38 of 101 attempts. The Iowa Barnstormers had the worst, they allowed 54 conversions on 104 attempts for a 51.9% success rate. The Soul performed the best out of the East Division in this category.

The Soul did not hold up so well when teams took a shot at them on 4th down, the Soul ranked next to last in this category. The defense allowed 20 4th-down conversions on 36 attempts--good for a gut wrenching 55.7% success rate for their opponents. Only the Iowa Barnstormers (yet again) allowed a worse percentage than the Soul--a 62.5% success rate on 20 of 32 attempts. The New Orleans VooDoo quite surprisingly held opponents to an AFL best 40.0% on 12 of 30 attempts.

And now we've come to the biggest indicator that the Soul's 2011 defense wasn't quite as advertised, the scoring defense. The Soul ranked 9th in the AFL in this category which was admirable, but after I give the numbers you'll see the area of concern for yourself.

Teams scored on the Soul on 94 (89 TD's and 5 FG's) of their 120 possessions in the red zone for a 78.3 success rate. Of those 89 touchdowns, 32 were rushing scores and 57 were passing touchdowns. Opponents attempted 11 field goals overall, but only came away with 5 of them made successfully.

Teams had the second most red zone scores against the Soul in the league and the Soul also defended against the most red zone possessions. The Utah Blaze gave up the most scores (106) on 120 red zone possessions. The Soul gave up the second most touchdowns, the second most rushing touchdowns, and the third most passing touchdowns.

These are not the type of numbers the Soul need in order to compete for a ArenaBowl championship in 2012. Improvement in this area must result pretty quickly in order for the Soul to have any chance, unless their offense improves that much more after all these off-season acquisitions. A prolific offense can keep the Soul close in any game they play, but a better than average defense is essential in order to advance throughout the playoffs.

One of the Soul's biggest reasons for such a poor scoring defense is because of their 49 turnovers lost last season. Things probably would look more favorable for the Soul if they had found a way to hold onto the football more often, but with a new season comes new possibilities. I look for the turnovers to improve and the scoring defense as well. The Soul still have some improvements to make on their second ranked defense from last year, but I don't see Plank allowing this defense to under perform one bit.



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